[Lianxun Securities Annual Report Comment]Changchun High-tech (000661): Changchun High-tech’s high growth rate does not reduce the acquisition of the remaining equity in Kinsey to remove the development risks
The company announced that it achieved revenue of 53 in 2018.
7 trillion, net profit attributable to mothers 10 trillion, an increase of 31.
0% and 52.
1%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers is 10.
0 million yuan, an increase of 55 in ten years.
At the same time, the company announced that it intends to purchase 30% equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical from Jin Lei and Lin Dianhai through share issuance and convertible bonds, and plans to raise additional funds.
The purchase price of diversified assets and the convertible bond conversion lock-in price is 174.
49 yuan / share, but the final forecast value of Jinsai Pharmaceutical and the proposed pricing and performance compensation commitments have not yet been determined, and a decision has to be made after final reconciliation and audit.
Comment: The joint efforts of the growth hormone and vaccine businesses promoted the accelerated growth of the company’s revenue, and net profit attributable to mothers and net profit after deductions to mothers increased by 31 respectively.
1% and 55.
7%, the profit side has shown an accelerated growth trend in the past six years.
The molecular companies look at: 1) Jinsai Pharmaceutical (the main product is growth hormone, the company holds 70% of the shares): In fact, the revenue is 32.
0 million yuan, net profit 11.
300 million, an increase of 53.
4% and 65.
1%, the fourth quarter revenue and profit growth exceeded market expectations, about 63% and 158%, respectively, the existing company’s growth hormone product line is polylactic acid recombinant human growth hormone injection (long-acting water injection), regenerationHuman growth hormone (short-acting powder injection, water injection), revenue accounted for about 90% of Jinsai Pharmaceutical (2018Q3 quarterly report), in addition to recombinant human injection follicle stimulating hormone for injection; 2) Biogram (the main product of chickenpox) Vaccines, rabies vaccines, etc. The company holds 46 shares.
15%) and report a profitable income of 10.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.
3%; net profit realized 2.
0 million yuan, an increase of 63 in ten years.
0%, the fourth quarter basically did not contribute profits, mainly due to accrual of incentive costs and other reasons, but we believe that Changsheng’s exit from the chickenpox and mad vaccine market space, Baike Biological will have the opportunity to share food, continue to be optimistic about the vaccine business in 2019increase.
The initial batch of approved attenuated varicella vaccine increased by 163 compared to the previous year, with an overall market share of about 36%, ranking first. The focus is on research products that have been declared for production of nasal spray freeze-dried influenza attenuated live vaccines. Are they waiting?
3) Jilin Huakang (general medicine products such as Chinese medicine, the company holds shares).
75%), short-term revenue and net profit are 5 respectively.
270,000 yuan and 31.69 million yuan, respectively increased by about -19.
About 1% and -6%, operating performance has improved, mainly due to shifting the factors of Shanhaiguan Pharmaceutical.
4) High-tech real estate (real estate business, the company holds 100% of the shares), the expected performance is about 74 million, which is basically -19%.
Acquired 30% minority shareholders ‘equity in Jinsai, simultaneously raised 30% minority shareholders’ equity, relieved many years of hidden dangers and thickened the company’s profits. Shuangdiaoiao Company released an annual report and released a reorganization plan at the same time, planning to issue shares and / or targeted convertible bonds to acquire 杭州桑拿网 Jinsai Pharmaceutical配套资金；金赛药业30%少数股东权益由核心灵魂人物金磊和林殿海持有，两位股东通过发行股份\可转债置换为上市公司股份后，与上市公司利益更为深度捆绑，消除市场Doubts; At the same time, as the main source of profits, Jinsai Pharmaceutical will be beneficial to thicken the company’s profits in November 2018 in Jinsai Pharmaceutical.
On the basis of a profit of USD 300 billion, assuming a multiple of 15 times the acquisition of PE, the corresponding 30% Kinsey distribution is estimated to be about 5 billion. Based on the price increase of the issue price, it is estimated that the EPS will increase by about 14 under the condition of all share payment.
4%, if you choose a part of convertible bonds to pay, the performance increase will be more obvious.
Earnings forecast and investment rating will not consider the impact of the acquisition of 30% minority shareholders’ equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical for the time being. We predict that the company’s operating income will be 72 in 2019-2020.
7.3 billion, an increase of 34.
5% / 32.
7% / 27.
0%; net profit attributable to mothers is 14.
36 trillion, respectively increased by 43.
4% / 33.
2% / 26.
5%; corresponding earnings per share is 8.
33 yuan, the current closing price (248.
66 yuan / share) corresponding to the PE of 2019-2021 respectively 29/22/17 times; the company’s net profit in the next three years will grow at an average rate of 35%, and PES (2019E) is only 0.
8 times the estimated budget and give a “Buy” rating.
Risks suggest that new product sales are less than expected; drug tenders have lowered prices than expected; 2013 Changsha incident industry risks.