Baiyun Airport (600004): Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao hub airport T2 put into operation to accelerate traffic realization

Baiyun Airport (600004): Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao hub airport T2 put into operation to accelerate traffic realization

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has a clear plan and multiple factors are driving the development of the airport.

In February 2019, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the “Outline of Development Planning for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area”, which proposed that the four central cities of Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen should be the core engines for 苏州桑拿 regional development to build a world-class Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Airport group.

In April 2017, Baiyun Airport was upgraded to a Tier 1 airport, and the development of a world-class aviation hub requires clear requirements.

The airport is a regionally owned enterprise. The most important determinant is the number and quality of passenger sources in the area.

The Baiyun Airport Line’s passenger source comes from the entire Pearl River Delta region, and its geographical advantage is obvious.

Base Airlines China Southern Airlines concentrated on actively opening or encouraging waypoints along the “Belt and Road” and overseas routes will help increase international routes and increase the proportion of international passengers.

As one of the best entry-exit points in southern China, Baiyun Airport 北京桑拿洗浴保健 is already the first gateway hub for Southeast Asia and Australia. It is mainly based in Asia-Pacific, Oceania and Africa. The layout of the route network gradually strengthened in Europe, America and other global regions has begun to take shape., Actively promote the construction of the hub airport; the airport breaks through the capacity limit, and the potential for realizing traffic is huge.

In April 2018, Baiyun Airport commissioned the T2 terminal building, breaking through the shortened throughput period.

At present, Baiyun Airport has 2 terminals and 3 runways, and its throughput is rich. The growth of passengers in the future will bring the combined effects of aviation and non-airline services to Baiyun Airport.

From 2017 to 2018, the company conducted bidding for T1, T2 advertising business, tax-exempt business, etc.

The deduction rate for inbound tax exemption has been increased to 42%, and the deduction rate for exemption of outbound tax has been increased to 35%. The airport has obtained continuous growth in income through the form of “guarantee base + commission”.

Baiyun Airport’s advertising business is transformed from self-operated to expand the form, and the company’s operating efficiency is improved through the form of “guarantee + commission”.

With the construction of an international hub and an increase in the proportion of international passengers, non-airfare revenue is expected to exceed guaranteed sales revenue and continue to contribute to the company’s performance; the short-term impact on performance has weakened, and future performance rebound can be expected.

The cancellation of the return of the Civil Aviation Fund has reduced the airport’s source of income, affecting an estimated revenue of about 8 in 19 years.

8 billion.

The annual average depreciation cost caused by T2 production is about 8.

05 trillion, labor costs, utilities, labor costs and other operating costs also increased accordingly.

Two major short-term factors have caused the company’s performance to be at a historical low. However, we believe that Baiyun Airport’s unfavorable factors have landed, the growth of conversion traffic, the increase in non-aeronautical business income will gradually cover increased costs, and the company’s profitability will gradually increase;Investment Advice.

The rigid cost caused by T2 commissioning has risen, and the cancellation of the refund of the Civil Aviation Development Fund has led to a record low for Baiyun Airport’s 2018 and 2019 first quarter results. However, we believe that Baiyun Airport’s unfavorable factors have already landed and the company’s profitability will gradually increase.

We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 81.

3.3 billion, 88.

5.4 billion, 98.

12 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.

0%, 8.

9%, 10.

8%, net profit is 9 respectively.

09 million yuan, 12.

3.2 billion, 16.

49 ppm, a ten-year increase of -19.

5%, 35.

6%, 33.

8%, EPS is 0.

44, 0.

60, 0.

80 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 36.

8, 26.

9, 20.

2 times.We recommend giving Baiyun Airport an EV / EBITDA of 16 times, which corresponds to a reasonably actable 18.

7 yuan, the reasonable range expected by the company is expected to be some.

8-21.

5 yuan, the first coverage given a neutral rating; risk warning.

The macro-economy exceeded expectations, the risk of market competition among airports within the Pearl River Delta region, and the risk of competition from other modes of transportation.