HiSec (002653): Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Turning Point Has Appeared

HiSec (002653): Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Turning Point Has Appeared

Event: The company released a 2019 interim report performance forecast, reporting that the merged company is expected to realize net profit attributable to its mother.

19-2.

400,000 yuan, 南京夜网 an increase of 50-65% in ten years.

Opinion: The company’s performance forecast exceeds market expectations.

According to the company’s disclosure, the company’s marketing team actively promoted related high-growth activities to increase sales revenue and sales volume.

We believe that the high growth of performance is mainly composed of two factors. Due to the company, Dorastron, a new medical insurance company in 2017, continued to increase its volume. At the same time, new compound amino acids, new specifications and new approvals were approved in the past few years.Three-cavity bags, oral preparations and other products began to contribute significantly to the increase; after the implementation of the two-vote system in 2017, the company began marketing reforms, continuously increased the proportion of self-employed, and continued to strengthen the substitution of academics, so as to achieve more of the companyTo control and lead the education and promotion of products, the company’s sales expense ratio gradually decreased.

The sales of core products are good, and the subsequent generic drug business has more growth potential: we expect that in the first half of the year, dorastron, polyene phosphocholine, and amino acid series will achieve growth rates of 80%, 10%, and 20%, respectively.

Most of the company’s products are injectables and the main products are exclusive varieties. The short-to-medium-term impact of the purchase by volume is small.

In the past 7 years, more than 20 new products have been approved, most of which are exclusive and well-competitive varieties. With the rapid market access, they will continue to make good contributions in the future.

The blockbuster innovative drug HSK3486 is expected to be replaced by the recently-received CDE, and the domestic market potential is expected to reach US $ 3 billion.

According to the company’s letter, HSK3486 plans to declare for listing before the end of June. If the list of innovative drugs is considered to be progressing smoothly, we expect that it will be formally approved for CDE. HSK3486 is an intravenous sedative drug. According to previous head-to-head clinical data,Propofol’s me-better product, and plans to conduct Phase 3 clinical trials directly in the United States. According to the clinical development plan, its target covers all indications of propofol. The first indication to be declared for listing is endoscopy, referring to domestic propofol.With a consumption potential of more than 80 million phenols, we estimate that its domestic market space is expected to reach 3 billion.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4-2019.

7.9 billion, 5.

9.7 billion, 7.

7.4 billion, an increase of 43 each year.

6%, 24.

8% and 29.

5%; we estimate the company’s segment by business, and the estimated DCF for innovative drugs is 108.

600 million, generic drugs part 119.

8-143.

700 million.

In summary, we give the company a total market value of 228-25.2 billion in 2019, corresponding to a target interval of 21.

1-23.

3 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risk alert events: risk of failure of innovative drug development, risk of drug price reduction