CITIC Construction Investment: Q2 returns to the inventory cycle after the epidemic shock
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[CITIC Construction Investment Ding Luming Team]In-depth Topic 89: After the epidemic shock, the return to the inventory cycle in the second quarter remains unchanged. Source: Lu Ming’s quantitative perspective. Core indicators: PHEIC qualitative is not significant for the Chinese economyEconomic impact still depends on the beginning of the epidemic itself. After the outbreak of pneumonia caused by a new type of coronavirus in China, the situation quickly heated up.
On January 30, WHO escalated into a public health event of international concern.
The qualitative and temporary opinions of this PHEIC have limited impact on China and the world economy and trade.
The impact of the epidemic on China and international trade comes mainly from the epidemic itself.
The impact of SARS in 2003 on China’s GDP in the second quarter of 20039 China’s single quarter GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 20039.
10%, slightly lower than 2003Q1 11.
10% and 2003Q3 10.
00%, but not sure to change the long-term upward trend of the economy.
Hong Kong and Taiwan are linked by the impact of the SARS epidemic due to the small size of the economy.
15%, significantly lower than 2003Q1 and 2003Q3.
In May 2003, China’s industrial added value was more than 13.
70% compared to March (16.
20%; The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by ten years in May.
30% compared to April (July.
70%) and June (8.
30%) significantly interfered.
The impact of SARS on various industries in China: The transportation and catering and tourism industries were severely affected and severely transformed into the development of the SARS epidemic. The May 1 Golden Week was cancelled, and some people went out, which was not conducive to tourism, accommodation, and catering related consumption. 2003National passenger traffic and passenger turnover fell by 41 in May.
2% and 52.
1%, the GDP of the transportation, warehousing and postal industry in 2003Q2 was 5 quarters from the previous two quarters.
At 35%, the GDP of the accommodation and catering industry in the second quarter of 2003 was 6 years apart from the previous two quarters.
55% are the industries most affected by the SARS epidemic.
The impact of SARS on the market: The impact of the national resistance stage on the decomposition of A shares The real significant impact of SARS on the stock market was that after the epidemic in April 2003 significantly increased, the situation caused high-level awareness that the market transfer had declined rapidly, April 16As of May 13, the Wonderful A Index has fallen by 9.
15%, began to rebound after the epidemic improved.
The impact of the epidemic on interest rates, commodities and exchange rates is less obvious; the 20-day average of the 10-year Treasury bond rate was from 3 on April 16.
01% fell to 2 on May 13.
99%; From February 2003 to July 2003, the rise and fall of SHFE copper were 4 respectively.
35% and 3.
19%, the London gold rose by -4.
33%, 7.65%, -4.
95% and 2.
The impact of PHEIC on global risk appetite: References to the impact of emerging market countries’ own risks on PHEIC 5 times can sum up the experience of large-scale assets when emerging countries are affected.
When the human rights epidemic in emerging market countries is affected, in general, it can only affect its own risk appetite. The specific performance of risk assets is weaker than global risk assets.
The impact of this shock on other countries, especially the whole, is limited. Its risk substitution is mainly determined by the global economic cycle and its own economic cycle.
Specifically, in terms of exchange rates, the history of PHEIC five times, within one month from the announcement of PHEIC, the local currency exchange rate in the affected areas depreciated by an average of 0.
8%, of which, 4 times the emerging market epidemic area PHEIC depreciated by 0 on average.
The exchange rate of the affected countries in emerging markets has a small impact on the world, and it is manifested that changes in exchange rates of other countries have nothing to do with changes in the exchange rates of affected areas.
Equity market conditions are similar to exchange rates. The epidemic will cause the market to fall or rise behind the global rankings.
Two traceable PHEICs have dropped by an average of 0 a month after the announcement.
In the bond market, after the announcement, yields on major global bond ranges rose.
In terms of bulk, the impact of the epidemic in emerging market countries on the bulk is relatively weak, showing no obvious pattern of ups and downs.
The H1N1 outbreak in developed markets in the United States has strengthened commodities, but cannot be used routinely in developed markets.
The impact of the 2019-nCoV epidemic shock on the economy: After the pulse decline, the return to the inventory cycle in the second quarter will not change. Assume that the epidemic is properly controlled before the end of March. Compared with the impact of the SARS period, we expect that the impact of the epidemic will be positive.The Spring Festival holiday will have less economic impact than SARS.
The seasonal impact of the epidemic on GDP will reduce Q1 by 1-1.
2%, Q2 is within 2%.
The previous impact on industrial value added was expected to decrease by 2% in March, and it will be quickly repaired monthly thereafter.
In the medium term, with the economic downturn, the easing policy is expected to increase, which will help restore the inventory cycle after the implementation of the first phase of the China-US agreement.
Recommendations for the allocation of large categories of assets under the impact of the 2019-nCoV epidemic: If there is a single-day drop, you can consider first intervention. The market will need to wait for the peak of the epidemic (Jin Qilin analysts) to deduct according to the above in the past, the market may have limited downside.
After the first trading day, if the growth of A shares releases risk aversion, you can try to intervene. In the future, the index may have a systemic repair possibility. The GEM flexibility may still be greater than the main board, and priority attention can be given.
From the perspective of the industry, the strong industries and technology in the early stage will still have excess returns relative to the overall market.
It is expected that the A-share market will present an M double-headed pattern in the first half of the year.
In the next 3 months: Commodity prices are expected to achieve a weak rebound after oil prices fall, and oil prices may rebound in stages; Treasury interest rates will rebound after bottoming out or once again with economic recovery; the US dollar index is expected to peak and fall as the economic cycle starts; RMB may stabilize and rebound.
I. Upgrade of China’s new coronavirus outbreak In early 2020, a pneumonia outbreak of new coronavirus infection originated in Wuhan, which continued to January 31, 2020. In the provinces across the country, 11,791 cases were gradually diagnosed and gradually suspected.17,988 cases, and there is a trend of global spread. Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, Oceania are recognized confirmed cases.
On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China and its spread to the world as PHEIC (Public Health Event of International Concern).
We comprehensively judged that considering the important status of the Chinese economy in the world economy, in terms of the current general epidemic situation, even in the period of reversing the ebb, it is difficult for countries in the world, especially those with close trade relations with China, to restrict theirTrade exchanges, or short-term trade decoupling will bring serious blows to its own economy.
In this report, we try to draw lessons from history, and based on the review of the SARS epidemic in 2003 and other PHEIC impacts on the macroeconomic and market conditions at the time, and put forward investment recommendations based on the current situation.
Second, the impact of SARS on China’s economy and market in 20032.
The SARS epidemic occurred in January 2003. From the first SARS case in Guangdong on November 16, 2002 to July 13, 2003, there was zero growth in global SARS cases. The SARS epidemic can be divided into a period of spread (November 2002-2003) February), the outbreak period (March-May) and the stabilization period (June-July).
The outbreak period can be divided into initial response and full-fighting from the government’s response. Prior to April 15, 2003, due to poor information, SARS was considered as a general respiratory infectious disease. On April 17, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central CommitteeAfter the meeting, the senior officials fully recognized the severity and potential threat of atypical pneumonia, and began to spare no effort to take all necessary emergency measures including personnel appointments and removals. On April 19, then Premier Wen Jiabao formally warnedLocal officials who underreported and underreported will face severe punishment, and China has entered the stage of fighting against SARS.
In February 2003, more cases began to be found around the world. From March to May, the number of SARS cases reported worldwide increased, and the epidemic situation was gradually controlled after June.
On May 19, the number of SARS cases in Beijing was repeated several digits for the first time. The SARS epidemic in China was basically controlled and entered a stable and final phase. On July 13, the number of patients with SARS worldwide and suspected cases no longer increased.Basically over.
During the SARS period in 2003, a total of 8,422 cases of severe respiratory syndrome (SARS) were reported worldwide, the vast majority of which occurred in Mainland China (63.
25%) and Hong Kong (20.
84%), 665 cases occurred in Taiwan, China (7.
2.2 The impact of the SARS epidemic on economic and industry fundamentals The Chinese economy was most affected by the SARS epidemic in the second quarter of 2003, with GDP falling by 9 in the second quarter of 2003.
10%, slightly lower than 11 in 2003Q1.
10% and 2003Q3 of 10.
00%; GDP growth rate of Mainland China in 2002, 2003 and 2004 were 9 respectively.
00% and 10.
10%, the upward trend of the economy is not changing.
Due to the small size of the economies in Hong Kong and Taiwan, penetrating the impact of the SARS epidemic, Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2003 was -0.
60%, significantly lower than 3 in 2003Q1.
90% and 4 of 2003Q3.
00%, Taiwan’s GDP in the second quarter of 2003 -1.
15%, which is also significantly lower than 5 in 2003Q1.
17% and 5 in 2003Q3.
GDP growth rate of the first industry in the second quarter of 20031.
70%, relative to the lowest value expected in the previous two quarters1.
35%; secondary industry GDP quarter 11.
30%, a decrease of 1 relative to GDP in the previous two quarters.
90%; tertiary industry GDP quarter 8.
70%, relative to the two quarters before and after GDP reduction of 0.
In the tertiary industry, the GDP of the transportation, warehousing, and postal industries in 2003Q2 was relatively distant from the previous two quarters by five.
At 35%, the GDP of the accommodation and catering industry in the second quarter of 2003 was 6 years apart from the previous two quarters.
55% is the industry most affected by the atypical pneumonia epidemic; it is mainly because, in order to reduce the probability of being infected, dining out and travel are significantly decomposed, and the May Day Golden Week was cancelled.
Real estate GDP in the second quarter of 2003 was 12.
70%, compared with 11 in 2003Q1.
10% is still growing, and it was replaced by 6 in 2003Q3.
90%, 2003Q4 again increased to 9.
From the perspective of industrial production, significant shifts occurred in April and May of 2003. The most obvious replacement is heavy industry. The industrial added value in May 2003 was 14 months apart.
50%, compared to 18 in March 2003.
80% formaldehyde 4.
30%; added value of light industry May 12, 2003.
50%, compared with 13 in March 2003.
90% formaldehyde 1.
40%; industry as a whole from May 13, 2003.
70%, compared to 16 in March 2003.
90% formaldehyde 3.
From the perspective of investment, long-term fixed asset investment and real estate investment were stable and weakening in 2003. There was no obvious deviation due to the SARS epidemic in the second quarter of 2003.From the perspective of imports and exports, the impact of the SARS epidemic on import and export trade is not obvious. Only April 2003 may have a slight impact: the export in March and June 2003 was 34 in the same period.
30% and 32.
60% of imports are 45 per year.
90% and 40.
The SARS epidemic has a temporary impact on consumption. The development of the epidemic situation has reduced the number of people going out, which is not conducive to tourism, accommodation and catering related consumption.
The May 1 Golden Week was cancelled due to the SARS epidemic, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased in May 2003 (4.
30%) compared to April 2003 (7.
70%) and June 2003 (8.
30%) significantly shifted, and the above zero in May shifted by 3 from the average of April and June.
In terms of consumption categories, clothing, gold and silver jewelry consumption even experienced a negative growth in May 2005.
In the case of daily necessities, Chinese and western medicines, due to the epidemic situation, the consumption volume jumped for many years in April 2003.
In April 2003, the national passenger traffic decreased by 6 every six months.
9%, passenger turnover decreased by 8 every year.
0%, national passenger traffic and passenger turnover fell by 41 in May.
2% and 52.
The transportation industry was affected by the epidemic by 1%, and the national passenger volume and passenger turnover decreased by 22 in June.
25% and 28.
9%, the national passenger traffic and passenger turnover fell by 7 in July.
1% and 9.
At 7%, the decline in passenger turnover caused by the epidemic dissipated began to shift.
Provision and catering industry return on net assets in 2003 -3.
3%, which is substantially lower than -0 in 2002.
7% and -1 in 2004.
The market performance during SARS in March 2003. During the period when the first case of SARS was found on November 16, 2002 and the global case of SARS no longer increased on July 13, 2003, the United States launched the Iraq war and expanded its release to squeeze the real market bubble”Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Real Estate Credit Business” (No. 121 consecutive documents) and other events that have a significant impact on the trend of A shares.
In the first quarter of 2003, the Chinese economy had just emerged from the downturn in 2001 and was in the booming expansion phase of that heavy chemical industry cycle (later overheated across the entire line in the first quarter of 2004).
In early January 2003, the Wonderful A Index bottomed out at 937 points and started spring agitation, which increased by 13 at the end of February.
87%. It was reactivated on March 27 after the March adjustment, and it rose by 1,119 points from March 27 to April 15.
At that time, news reports on SARS were relatively limited. On March 31, China introduced the Technical Solution for Atypical Pneumonia Complications. The market only dealt with the general SARS epidemic event with little impact and was basically not affected by SARS.
From the beginning of the year to April 15, the Wonderful A Index has gradually increased.
46%, accumulating potential profit-taking.
The real significant impact of SARS on the stock market was that after the epidemic in April 2003, the situation aroused high-level awareness that on April 17, the central government adopted personnel appointment and removal measures, and on April 19, the Prime Minister explicitly warned against covering up the underreporting of the actual outbreakAfter the gradual decrease, the market transfer declined rapidly, from April 16th to May 13th, the Wonderful A Index dropped by 9.15%, even some people stopped the market, the kind of similar funds did not panic hit the market; mainly due to panic killing of individual investors.
On May 9, 2003, there has been a significant decline in the number of infection cases. After the SARS zero record in Beijing on May 29, the SARS epidemic entered a stable period and ended. Therefore, after the two-day opening of the market on May 12, 2003, the mood resumed.As of May 29, it has gradually increased by 3.
76%. From November 16, 2002, when the first atypical pneumonia case was found in Foshan, Guangdong, to July 13, 2003, Wonderwide A rose by -0.
95%, the overall impact of SARS on the market is limited.
On June 13, 2003, a notice on the gradual reduction of the real estate market bubble, the “Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of the Real Credit Business,” was dubbed “the most severe measure that has been continuously introduced in the past ten years.”The industry has evoked a strong response, marking the beginning of a tightening of real estate credit, changing illegal real estate credit for liquidation, A shares ended the market in the first half of the year, and began a five-month adjustment.
At the industry level, during the SARS epidemic, the nation’s fight against SARS was the stage when SARS really had a significant impact on A shares; the performance of leisure services was the worst, mainly because some people went out, and the May 1 Golden Week was cancelled due to the SARS epidemic.It is not conducive to tourism, accommodation, and catering related consumption; cars have the best performance and are worth benefiting from consumption upgrades. Crossing the inflection point of the S-curve can reduce public transportation and increase short-term demand for passenger cars.
From the perspective of bond market performance, the bond market performed abnormally during the SARS period, with the 10-day average of the 10-year Treasury bond rate starting from 3 on April 16.
01% fell to 2 on May 13.
The impact of the epidemic on commodities and exchange rates is also not very obvious. From February 2003 to July 2003, the SHFE copper prices rose 4 times.
35% and 3.
19%, USD / CNY exchange rate remained at 8.
277, London gold is up or down by -4.
95% and 2.
30%, the dollar index rose by -0.
57% and 2.
Third, the impact of PHEIC on global asset prices3.
1In addition to SARS, the six public health events of international concern in history, we use PHEIC as a case study.
PHEIC is an official statement of the World Health Organization under the International Health Regulations (2005).
Countries have a legal obligation to promptly respond to “public health emergencies of international concern”.
Since the entry into force of the International Health Regulations (2005) in 2007, there have been six public statements, namely: the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the polio epidemic in 2014, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014, and 2015 to 2016.Annual Zika virus outbreak, Congo Ebola outbreak from 2018 to 2019, and Wuhan new coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in 2020.
On the whole, PHEIC’s international influence is more extensive. It lasted about one year from the announcement of PHEIC to the end of the epidemic.
It generally occurs in emerging market countries, which is closely related to the health conditions and disease prevention capabilities of emerging market countries.
In addition, the point at which WHO announced PHEIC was basically the peak of the disease outbreak.
3.1 In general, the impact of the epidemic on asset prices. From only five historical PHEICs, we can summarize the law of emerging markets as an epidemic area.
When the plague of emerging market countries is affected by terrorism, in general, it can only affect its own internal risk appetite. The specific performance of risk assets is weaker than global risk assets. For other countries in the world, global risk appetite is still dominated by the world at that time.The economic cycle of a country is determined.
In general, the regulations of the epidemic area, due to the multiple exceptions of the H1N1 time point starting in 2009, are in the post-financial crisis repair period. The expansion of H1N1 has not further exacerbated the risks based on the financial crisis.Part of the domain system is extra special and difficult to generalize as a general rule of continuous outbreaks.
The impact of the epidemic on asset prices, by asset class: exchange rate: review of the impact of 5 PHEIC on global asset prices in history, first of all, the outbreak of the epidemic will have an impact on the economy of the epidemic area.focus.
As for the national currencies of the affected areas, both developed and emerging market countries will have a certain impact on the exchange rate.
Within 1 month from the announcement of PHEIC, the historical average exchange rate of the local currency exchange rate in the affected area was -0.
Among them, if the epidemic area is an emerging market country, the average depreciation is -0.
38%, the impact on other countries’ currencies is small; if the epidemic area is expanded, the impact on other countries has not been determined (because only once in history PHEIC involves developed markets and is in the United States, and foreign exchange is basically denominated in US dollars.
During the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, the US dollar index weakened, and most currencies around the world strengthened relative to the US dollar, but remained relatively weak, with the exception of the euro).
Stocks: During the PHEIC period, after the outbreak, the epidemic area is an emerging market country (two interchangeable PHEIC, and the other two outbreak countries did not set up stock exchanges or have no comprehensive index), the stock index will generally appearThe decline to varying degrees, the historical lag in January average decline -0.
For the impact of non-infected countries, if the emerging market countries are infected, the impact of the epidemic on other major global stock indexes may be limited due to their smaller economies.
If the epidemic area is a developed market country, during the H1N1 swine flu, the main indexes of 北京养生 Mexico and the United States will show an upward trend, but the overall increase lags in the ranking of global equity asset performance.
The impact on the pest free area can not be judged, because the US-Mexico situation in 2009 is an exception, and during the repair period after the global financial crisis, major global stock indexes have grown. The epidemic itself has not undermined the repair logic after the financial crisis.
Bonds: During the first two PHEIC outbreaks, that is, during the H1N1 and polio (Polio) period, and in the two quarters after the outbreak, bond yields continued to rise; during the next three PHEIC outbreaks, the yield was twoIt gradually declined in the quarter, and the market risk appetite was repaired.
Commodities: Commodities have global attributes, and their pricing depends more on global global demand.
Judging from the five PHEIC and SARS incidents in the past, the outbreaks in emerging market countries (including China in 2002) have a relatively limited impact on global aggregate demand and relatively weak impacts on large quantities.
The outbreak in developed markets in the United States (H1N1 swine flu) is relatively special. The devaluation of the US dollar has stimulated global demand and strengthened global commodities.
4. Macroeconomic and large-scale asset allocation recommendations under virus shock The latest new coronavirus is in the outbreak period, and the Chinese government is taking the most comprehensive and strictest prevention and control measures.
Dr. Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General, affirmed China’s efforts, but given the potential impact of the epidemic on the rest of the world, the outbreak of China’s new coronavirus was listed as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Based on the current state of affairs, we judge that the temporary recommendations made by the PHEIC Emergency Committee have limited impact on China and the international economy and trade. The impact of the epidemic on China and the international economy and trade mainly comes from the development of the epidemic.
In the short term, risk aversion has swept the world, risk assets have generally fallen, and the epidemic will affect China’s real economy.
At present, the epidemic situation has widely impacted various types of retail consumption during the Spring Festival, and it will continue to have a broad impact on retail after the holiday.
However, compared with the SARS period, the outbreak period coincides with the Spring Festival. The main prevention and control is around the Spring Festival. The negative impact on the economy should be relatively smaller than the SARS outbreak period from April to May 2003.
We expect the impact of the epidemic on GDP growth to decrease by 1-1 in the first quarter.
2% in the second quarter at 0.
The impact on industrial added value is expected to decrease by less than 2% in three months, and then be repaired quickly every month thereafter. According to the research on the economic impact of SARS, we judge that the impact on the service industry will be greater than the impact on the industry.Will be fixed quickly.
At the industry level, transportation and catering tourism will be severely affected.
Initially, in the context of the implementation of the first-phase agreement between China and the United States, assuming the epidemic is basically controllable and the diagnosis index is reached before the end of three months, the epidemic will be difficult to break through the laws of the business cycle, and China’s hedging policy will help global inventoryThe cyclical rebound continued to rise.
The Sino-U.S. Agreement will help the U.S. economy to depreciate, and Chinese procurement will help repair the short-term US economy; China will also gain new development space in the agreement and help China’s economic cycle to recover.
The current epidemic fermentation will accelerate the second bottom in the weak recovery (for details, please refer to “Annual Strategy for Major Assets and Funds Research 2020: Global Chinbo Downward Kick Cycle Resonance Start”).
In the context of China’s basically controllable epidemic, hedging policies are expected to continue to increase, and monetary advancement will remain loose.
Based on the above forecasts, our investment suggestions are as follows: At present, A shares have fallen by 6%, and it is expected that there will be limited space for gradual reduction in the future. The market is expected to respond directly on the first day.
In addition, the World Health Organization ‘s confidence in China will help improve market sentiment.
Looking forward to the next three months: First, in the domestic equity market, if A shares open lower than expected on the first day, you may consider entering first.
However, the complete restoration of market risk appetite may still depend on the improvement of the epidemic.
Initially, there is a systemic repair of the index. The market has a large M double head. The second high point is to try at the end of April and early May. The GEM flexibility is still greater than the main board.
From the perspective of the industry sector, after the previous strong sectors, such as technology, have completed the growth and supplemented the decline, there is still a chance for a recovery rebound. Second, the commodity sector is still in a cyclical upward cycle, and global demand will gradually enter the recovery stage.After the price falls, it is expected to realize a weak rebound, and oil prices may rebound in stages. Third, in the bond market, after the epidemic hits the real economy, the policy will be loosened in stages, which will reduce the real financing interest rate and stimulate the economy to warm up.
After the economic recovery, the Treasury bond interest rate stage is expected to rebound to 3.
In the foreign exchange market, the current global risk aversion is strong, and the US dollar index remains at a high level. If the global economy completes a second bottom, the US dollar index is expected to peak and fall from 98 to below 97; 5. In the tradeAfter the post-war easing and the improvement of the epidemic, the RMB exchange rate is expected to rebound in the next three months, falling back from more than 7 to 6.
A level of around 9 will drive the revaluation of RMB assets.
Analyst introduction Ding Luming: Master of Financial Mathematics from Tongji University, China’s quasi-actuary, currently serving as the financial engineering team, director of major asset allocation and fund research teams, and chief analyst of CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research and Development Department.
11 years in the securities industry, successively served as the head of the financial engineering senior budget and quantitative asset allocation direction of Haitong Securities Research Institute; successively researched quantitative strategies in the fields of military debt conversion, stock selection, conversion transactions, industry allocation, and large-scale asset allocation.In-depth research in asset allocation and asset timing, and the establishment of a domestic “quantitative fundamentals” investment research system.
Many award-winning team honors: New Fortune Best Analyst 2009 No. 4, 2012 No. 4, 2013 No. 1, 2014 No. 3, etc .; Crystal Ball Best Analyst No. 1, 2009, 2013 No. 1, etc .; Wind Gold Analyst 20182nd.
Wang Chengchang: Master of Computer Technology from Peking University, 2 years working experience of hedge fund, joined the financial engineering team of CITIC Securities Research and Development Department in 2019, focusing on fundamental quantitative research in the field of judgment and industry allocation; Feng Gold analyst2nd team member in 2019.
Chen Feng: Analyst of the major asset allocation and fund research team of the research and development department of CITIC Construction Investment.
He joined CITIC Construction Investment in 2016 and worked in a strategic team before 2018.
The current research field involves global macro and large asset allocation, and is committed to the application of structuralism in large asset allocation.
Name of securities research report: “In the second quarter after the outbreak of the epidemic, the return cycle of the inventory cycle will not change.” External release time: February 03, 2020 Report issuing agency: CITIC Construction Investment Securities Co., Ltd. Analyst: Ding Luming Practice CertificateNumber: S1440515020001 Wang Chengchang Practice Certificate No .: S1440520020001 Chen Feng Practice Certificate No .: S1440518120001