Tsingtao Brewery (600600) Third Quarterly Report Review: Fearless of short-term sales fluctuations continues to be optimistic about profit release

Tsingtao Brewery (600600) Third Quarterly Report Review: Fearless of short-term sales 青岛夜网 fluctuations continues to be optimistic about profit release
Event: 2019Q1-3 The company achieved operating income of 248.97 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.31%; net profit attributable to mother is 25.86 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.15%; net profit after deduction is 22.9.8 billion yuan, an annual increase of 27.55%.Among them, in Q3 2019, operating income was 83.460,000 yuan, an increase of -1 in ten years.66%; net profit attributable to mother 9 was achieved.55 ppm, an increase of 19 in ten years.77%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 8.53 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.70%, third-quarter profit growth exceeded expectations. The sales volume in the first three quarters remained the same.In Q1 2019, the company achieved sales of 719.50,000 kiloliters, basically flat for one year; of which, sales in 2019Q3 were 246.50,000 kiloliters, down by 6 every year.1%.The growth rate of sales in the third quarter of 2019 is mainly due to: (1) stocking at the end of the second quarter of 2019, peak season, digestion of channel inventory in the third quarter; (2) lower temperature in the third quarter of 2019, which affects beer consumption;) The company’s strict cost control in the third quarter affected sales growth.The company’s gradually increasing sales in the first three quarters remain unchanged. We continue to forecast that the industry and the leading production and sales forecast will remain flat. The growth of the industry mainly comes from price increases, and short-term sales changes should be treated reasonably. The structure continued to upgrade + the cost increase narrowed, and Q3 gross margin improved significantly.The company’s ton wine price increased by 4 in Q3 2019.7%, mainly benefiting from structural upgrade + investment reduction dividend.In terms of different brands, the sales volume of the main brand in Q3 2019 was 1.17 million kiloliters, alternating up and down 2.8%; sales of other brands were 1.29 million kiloliters, ranking 8 in a year.9%.The sales growth rate of the main brands in Q3 2019 was ahead of other brands6.1 pct, 5 from the first half of the year.Rebuilding by 3 percentage points, the proportion of major brands accelerated.In the third quarter, the ton price increased from the first half of the first half of the year. We believe that the company’s main product price increase in the Shandong base market in the second quarter of 2018, and the replacement contribution of the price increase in the third quarter of 2019 disappeared.2019Q3 ton wine cost increased by 2.4%, compared with 4 in the first half.The 1% narrowed significantly. We believe that (1) 2019Q3 glass bottles and barley have stabilized compared with 2019Q2. As the glass bottles in 2018Q3 increased significantly, the cost of ton wine increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the cost base of 2019Q3 tons of wine; (2) the company continued to expandBottle rate, saving glass bottle cost.Taken together, the gross profit margin in Q3 2019 increased by one.31 to 40.34%. Taxes and surcharges continued to fall, and the sales expense ratio in the third quarter was slightly under pressure.In the context of the continuous increase in ton prices, the company’s consumption tax rate is declining, and it will decrease by 0 in Q3 2019.50.In the third quarter, the sales, management, R & D, and financial expense ratios are +0 per year.84, -0.24, -0.01, 0 pct, the increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in out-of-house cocktails, which led to an increase in freight costs, and other expenses were well controlled.Taken together, the company’s net interest rate increased by 1 in Q3 2019.93 to 12.00%.Considering (1) the total asset impairment losses and asset disposal gains caused by closing the plant in the third quarter of last year were -9.26 million yuan; (2) non-operating income in 2019Q3 increased by 10.26 million yuan over the same period last year.After reducing the above effects, net profit attributable to mothers increased by approximately 18% per year in the third quarter of 2019. Profit forecast: After Chairman Huang took office in 2018, Tsingtao Brewery’s price increase was normalized, sales staff incentives were strengthened, and the promotion of 1903 big single products was steadily advanced.We believe that Tsingtao Brewery will continue the logic of profit release, continue to be optimistic about the structural upgrade to drive ASP improvement, close the plant and improve efficiency and cost-efficiency ratio.Due to the sales 重庆耍耍网 growth in the third quarter of 2019, the sales volume is expected to increase slightly. We adjust the profit forecast and expect the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 to be 280.87, 296.45, 312.09 million yuan, the net profit attributable to mother was 17 respectively.99, 22.50, 27.780,000 yuan (before adjustment, the net profit attributable to the mother was 18.53, 23.79, 28.5.3 billion), the return to the mother after the impact of closing the factory is expected to be 19.49, 24.00, 29.2.8 billion, with EPS of 1.33, 1.67, 2.06 yuan, corresponding to PE is 36 times, 29 times, 23 times, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk Warning: Force majeure factors lead to sales growth; intensified market competition leads to unexpected sales promotions